Same game parlays is popular forms of sports betting among fans that want to combine multiple predictions from the same game into one bet. Rather than merely choosing an outcome, bettors can mix and match picks such as a team to win, a player to score, a player to rack up a certain number of points.
The appeal is simple, if all your selections win, the potential payout can be much higher than a traditional single bet. But that bigger payout means the odds of losing are bigger, because typically all legs of the wager have to win. Before you place an SGP, you need to understand how these bets are priced, what can go wrong and how sportsbooks structure them.
What is a same-game parlay?
A same game parlay (SGP for short) is a combination of two or more betting selections from the same sporting event into a single bet. For example, a basketball bettor might bet on the home team to win, the star player to score over a certain number of points, and another player to have over a certain number of rebounds.
The primary distinction from a standard parlay is that all selections are from the same game. Sportsbooks have proprietary pricing models that reflect the relationships of the outcomes. For example, a player’s scoring performance may be related to his team’s overall performance, so you don’t just multiply the individual prices to get the odds.
How does SGP betting work?
The basic process is the same as any other parlay bet. A punter selects the match, selects two or more eligible markets, checks the combined odds and then enters the amount they wish to stake. For example, let’s say there was a hypothetical NBA match-up where a bettor picks:
- Team A to win.
- Player A to score more than 25 points
- Player B to make more than 2 three-pointers
Those three picks become one bet. If all three win SGP wins. A parlay is usually a losing wager if one of the individual bets does not hit, but the specific sportsbook rules may vary if a leg gets voided or canceled.
Why do same-game parlays offer bigger payouts?
The potential return increases as more outcomes must occur together. A bettor may be relatively strong on three different aspects of a game, but combining them creates a much less likely overall outcome.
That’s why the potential payout can seem attractive when compared to betting each selection individually. But don’t confuse the higher return with better value. The sportsbook has already factored in the combined probability and correlation between the selections when setting the SGP price.
Understanding SGP odds
SGP pricing can be more complex than standard parlay calculations. Sportsbooks typically use their own models to come up with the final price, factoring in the probability of each outcome and how they play off each other.
If you’re a bettor trying to get a sense of the numbers, a parlay odds calculator can give you a rough idea of how the individual prices might come together. Different game markets may have correlation adjustments and proprietary pricing so you should not expect the calculator to give you the exact SGP price that is given by a sportsbook.
For instance, a sportsbook might price a bet on a quarterback’s passing yards and a receiver’s receiving yards differently than simply multiplying the two prices together. The two outcomes are connected, and the book explores that connection.
A simple same-game parlay example
Let’s say you have 3 selections in an NFL game: Team A to win, Quarterback over 250 passing yards and Receiver over 70 receiving yards
If the combined odds are +500 for the sportsbook, If all three picks hit and the sportsbook’s rules are followed, a $10 wager would return $60, or a $50 profit.
The example is simply for illustration. Actual odds will depend on the matchup, player availability and the betting market and sportsbook.
The biggest risks of same-game parlays
The main risk is straightforward: all the legs required must function. A bettor may pick the winning team of a game but lose because a player ends a game one point, rebound or reception short of the line chosen.
Another issue is that the larger payout can make a bet look more attractive than it really is. A price of +500 may appear attractive, but the implied probability for that combined outcome is nowhere near as good as for many single bets.
Also, there’s the danger of loading up a parlay with what seem to be connected picks. A bettor may be inclined to think that more legs are better if all the predictions are pointing to the same game script. Every extra requirement is another way for the ticket to fail in the real world.
Same-game parlay strategy: What should beginners consider?
A good same game parlay strategy starts with understanding the individual markets, not simply creating a ticket because the final payout looks good. I’m looking at a puzzle-survival game type scenario here. For example, if you think one team is going to dominate an NBA game, you might look to see if that makes sense for minutes, scoring opportunities or rebounding opportunities for players. Next, you want to see if the price the sportsbook is offering is correctly pricing those expectations.
It is also useful to compare markets before they are merged. A selection that stands alone and is attractive by itself can become unattractive as part of an SGP because of the final combined price. Most important of all, set a betting budget before you start. An SGP is to be seen as a riskier bet, not as a way to ensure a bigger return.
Correlation matters in SGP betting
Correlation is one of the biggest concepts in SGP gambling. It is the relation between different outcomes. A bettor might think an NFL team is going to get behind early. This scenario could potentially lead to more passing attempts which could create more opportunities for the quarterback and wideouts. These are linked outcomes, not entirely separate ones.
Sportsbooks factor these relationships into the pricing of same-game parlays. That’s why you might get a different number from a basic parlay calculator than what’s shown as the price on an SGP bet slip.
Same-game parlays vs traditional parlays
Traditional parlays can be made up of picks from multiple games, but same-game parlays are limited to a single matchup. The difference is especially important when the outcomes are related.
A typical parlay could be a basketball team to win, a baseball moneyline and a football player prop. The results are not very directly related. Whereas an SGP could be a team result with a few player performances in that same game. Both types of wagers are high risk as one losing leg can often cause the whole bet to lose.
How to evaluate an SGP before betting
Before you place a bet, think about more than just the payout. Check individual lines, recent player usage, injuries, expected role, matchup and overall game situation that would have to happen for the ticket to cash.
Another helpful question is whether each choice is essential. So if taking away a leg cuts the payout heavily but boosts the chance of winning quite a bit, then you might want to go for the single-leg bet to match your betting style better.
It can also be important to compare prices that you have available. “Sportsbooks may have different lines, or different SGP combos, so it’s a good idea for bettors to do some shopping around the market before they place a wager, just to make sure they know what they’re actually being offered.”
Common parlay betting risks
The biggest risk in parlay betting is putting a lot of different results on a single ticket. Even if individual choices seem reasonable, their joint probability can be much smaller. Bettors can also get caught up in the advertized payout instead of the chance of winning. A potentially large return does not mean the bet is good value.
Another common mistake is to chase losses and increase the size of an SGP after a losing bet. Parlays are already high variance and increasing the stake to recover previous losses can turn a small losing session into a much bigger one very fast.
Are same-game parlays worth betting?
There is no single answer. For some bettors, SGPs are a fun way to communicate a specific prediction of how a game could go. Others are more attracted to simpler bets because of the added risk and sportsbook pricing.
The trick is knowing that the larger the potential payout, the less likely it is that you will get all your picks correct. Betters should therefore view SGPs as a form of high-risk entertainment, not a way to make money.
