An NFL survivor pool couldn’t be any easier. Simply select one team every week to win and you won’t be eliminated. When the season starts, and every decision has consequences, the challenge is much more obvious. A team that looks like a no-brainer in week 2 may be worth a lot more down the road, while holding onto a good favorite for the right match-up can be the difference in surviving or going home.
Survivor pools differ from traditional sports betting in that they are based on elimination. You’re not trying to get every game, or build the biggest winning ticket. The goal is to keep making good picks until there is only one left, which makes schedule analysis, team strength, injuries, and future matchups especially important.
What is an NFL survivor pool?
An NFL survivor pool is a season-long contest where players pick one NFL team to win each week. If the selected team wins, the person moves to the next round. “Usually if that team loses the contestant is eliminated.”
Some pools count ties as losses, while others have different rules for ties, postponed games or other unusual situations. There is no universal format so it’s important to check the pool rules before making your first selection.
Many pools also do not allow players to pick the same team more than once in the season. That limitation is what makes survivor contests so much more strategic than just picking the biggest favorite every week.
Survivor pool rules you should know
The basic rules of a Survivor pool are easy to understand, but each contest can have some big differences as well. Before the season starts, players should check the league’s policy on ties, bye weeks, postponed games, dropped players and duplicate picks. The most common structure asks for one pick each week, and if the pick is correct, the participant moves on. A losing choice usually ends the participant’s run.
Some pools add additional rules such as allowing one re-entry, multiple lives, picks before kickoff, or altering the scoring structure. Other knockout pools can be structured like an NFL knockout pool where if you pick incorrectly you’re out and the last one standing wins.
How an NFL knockout pool works
The phrase NFL knockout pool is often used interchangeably with survivor pool. The idea is simple enough. Each player has a chance of survival and the chance is lost on a wrong choice. This format creates an interesting dynamic, as the safest team is not always the best strategic pick. When almost everybody picks the same heavy favorite, that team can be a big upset and change the whole pool in an afternoon.
Successful players often think beyond the current week and how their choices will impact their options later on.
Survivor pool strategy: Think beyond one week
A good strategy for survivor pools is to weigh the odds of winning this week’s game against the value of saving teams for future weeks. Start with teams that are huge favorites based on matchups, home field advantage, quarterback play, injuries and overall team strength. Then look at the number of realistic alternatives you have in the weeks ahead.
A pick that gives you a good chance of surviving and preserves a few useful teams can be more attractive than a slightly better favorite that you may need desperately later.
How to choose your weekly team
There is no one stat that will determine the best survivor pick. Instead, look at the total matchup and the situation in the game. “It’s often appealing to have home teams with a clear talent advantage, but location should never be a factor in a pick. Injuries, quarterback availability, defensive matchups, weather and recent performance all can affect the projected outcome.
It also helps to distinguish between a team that is truly good and one that is simply popular. Public sentiment can make a favorite appear a sure thing, even when the matchup has serious perils.
Save elite teams for the right moment
One of the most important survivor pool tips is to avoid playing your strongest teams just because they are playing this week. Let’s say you have a couple of elite options to choose from but one has a great matchup this week and the other has a much better matchup down the road. Using the first team makes sense at a time, but if you automatically take the highest profile team every week, you could find yourself with fewer options when the schedule gets difficult. Treat each team as a resource. When a team is used it may not be available to you anymore.
Look for alternatives when everyone has the same pick
There can be ownership issues in big survivor pools. If a large percentage of participants choose the same team, that pick may be relatively safe, but it also opens up the possibility of a dramatic shift in the standings if the favorite loses.
That doesn’t mean you should necessarily fade the most popular pick. Sometimes it’s not a good idea to take a worse team just for the sake of being different.
Instead, compare the popular pick to the best choices you have. If another team is offering something similar chance to win and it doesn’t cost a valuable future option, it may be worth a look.
Do not ignore injuries and late news
NFL teams can look very different depending on who is available. Injuries to quarterbacks are especially important, but changes at offensive lines, secondary units and other key positions can change the look of a game. What looks like a good game on Tuesday may not look so attractive on Sunday morning.
That means survivor players should check injury reports and relevant team news prior to their selection being locked in.
Weather can change a survivor pick
Another factor that can be missed is the weather. Heavy rain, strong winds or extreme conditions can influence passing attacks, kicking and scoring overall. Weather doesn’t automatically doom a team, but it can alter the nature of a matchup and add an element of uncertainty. When two options seem equally attractive then environmental circumstances can be a useful tiebreaker.
Common NFL survivor pool mistakes
The first big mistake is picking a team just because it’s a popular team or has a great overall record. Survivor pools are about the matchup, not the reputation of a team. Another mistake is the incorrect use of future value. One person could knock out several of the elite teams early in the year and then discover the rest of the schedule has very few comfortable choices.
Some players get too attached to an initial pick. If, say, some big news changes the matchup before kickoff and you refuse to reconsider your selection, what could have been a manageable situation becomes an unnecessary elimination.
Don’t chase the biggest favorite blindly
Generally, bigger betting favorites are more likely to win than smaller favorites, but survivor pools aren’t just about picking the shortest odds each week. That’s important because you only have so many teams. Now if two options have similar win probabilities , but the second option has significantly more future value , the second option might be more strategically useful .
The idea is to give yourself the best chance of surviving the whole contest, not just to make the most obvious pick for the current week.
How to build a weekly survivor checklist
Look at the matchup from a number of angles before you make your pick. Look at opponent, injuries, home or away, recent performance, quarterback situation, weather and remaining schedule of the team.
Then ask yourself one last question: If I knew the games on my schedule two or three weeks from now, would I still want to use this team? That simple check will eliminate many of the common mistakes in survivor contests.
